FAO GIEWS Country Brief on Nigeria –

OOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT Uncertain production prospects for 2026 cereal crops Food inflation at elevated level in July 2026 Dire food security situation in Borno State due to ongoing conflict Uncertain production prospects for 2026 cereal crops In southern and central bimodal rainfall areas, harvesting of the 2026 main season maize crop is nearing completion. Cumulative rainfall amounts between April and July 2026 were generally near average, supporting crop development and overall favourable production prospects. However, several dry spells between mid‑May and late July affected crops in parts of Oyo, Kwara, Osun, Ekiti, Ondo and Edo states. Satellite‑based data indicated below‑average vegetation conditions in these areas as of late August, and localized production shortfalls are expected. Planting of the second season maize crop is ongoing and is expected to be completed by the end of September. In northern unimodal rainfall areas, planting of the 2026 cereal crops was completed in July and harvesting has recently begun. The onset of seasonal rains was generally timely in May, except in some localized northeastern areas, where delays of up to one month disrupted planting operations and crop establishment. Adequate cumulative precipitation amounts through late August resulted in average to above-average vegetation conditions and favourable yield prospects across most of the far north. However, several dry spells in July and August affected crops in some parts of the Middle Belt and in Borno, Yobe, Kebbi, Sokoto, Bauchi, Gombe and Plateau states, increasing the risk of localized cereal production shortfalls. Weather forecasts for September and October 2026 indicate a high likelihood of average to above‑average rainfall amounts across most central and northern areas, which are expected to support crop development but also increase the risk of localized flooding. Near‑average rainfall amounts are forecast across most southern areas, except in the southwest, where below-a