Early Warning & Forecasting

Based on HungerMap data kindly supplied by the World Food Programme (WFP)

Here is a summary of populations impacted by the latest available WFP snapshot datasets addressing Early Warning and Forecasting based on survey and/or forecast (clearly labelled). The five key WFP indicators are then set out separately below in world maps of different colours for clarity, with a definition of each of the indicators. If you are viewing this on a smartphone, expand the world map by the standard ‘pinch open to zoom in’ technique used on your particular device (iPhone, Samsung etc).

Estimated people affected by latest WFP snapshots (SURVEY)

  1. FCS – Food Consumption Score (insufficient food consumption)
  • What it is: A composite score based on what food groups households ate in the last 7 days, how often, and the nutritional weight of each group.
  • What our % prevalence means: “Share of people with insufficient food consumption” – i.e. those with poor or borderline FCS, not “everyone with any FCS at all”.
  • Intuition: Higher % = more people eating too little and/or too monotonous a diet.

Food Consumption (FCS) – poor/borderline

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2. rCSI – Reduced Coping Strategies Index (crisis food-based coping)

  • What it is: Measures how often households used a fixed list of 5 negative coping strategies in the last 7 days (skipping meals, reducing adults’ intake so children can eat, etc.), weighted by how severe each strategy is.
  • Our % prevalence: Typically “% of population with rCSI ≥ 19”, i.e. households resorting to crisis or above food-based coping.
  • Intuition: Higher % = more people are having to take quite extreme steps to get by.

Reduced Coping Strategies (rCSI)

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3. healthAccess – difficulty accessing health services

  • What it is: Prevalence of households that report challenges accessing health services (clinics, hospitals, etc.) in continuous phone surveys – e.g. because they lack money, can’t travel, services are closed, or everyone is too sick to go.
  • Our % prevalence: “% of people in surveyed population reporting a barrier to health services” (any barrier, not just distance).
  • Intuition: Higher % = health system function and/or affordability is a serious constraint.

Difficult access to health services

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4. marketAccess – difficulty accessing markets/grocery stores

  • What it is: Prevalence of households that report challenges accessing markets or grocery stores, again from the near-real-time phone surveys. Typical barriers include: markets too far away, markets closed, movement restrictions, no money, insecurity on routes, etc.
  • Our % prevalence: “% of people facing problems accessing markets.”
  • Intuition: Higher % = physical or economic access to food outlets is badly disrupted.

Difficult access to markets

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5. livelihoodCoping – crisis/emergency livelihood coping strategies

  • What it is: WFP’s Livelihood Coping Strategies – Food Security indicator: whether households are using crisis or emergency actions to cope with shocks – e.g. selling productive assets, depleting savings, taking high-risk work, etc.
  • Our % prevalence: “% of people in households using crisis or emergency livelihood coping strategies.”
  • Intuition: Higher % = people are damaging their medium- and long-term ability to cope.

Crisis / emergency livelihood coping

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These ‘snapshot’ graphics are our first initiative in this area. We expect to enhance this data set with graphs of how the indicators are changing (we take a weekly feed from the WFP, we will need probably 6-12 months of data for trend graphs to have any meaning at all), as well as more advanced Hungermap datasets, including Food Security. If you would like to discuss this page from any perspective – criticism, improvements, alternatives, different data sources etc – if you are a member, please join the discussion on the bulletin board in the members area. If not, please email the Site Admin, address below with your comments.

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